|2018/04/12 11:55, Prist:|| |
|Zepir, you like conspiracy theories, why you don't see that this attack makes perfect sense?
Well, here's a conspiracy theory for you that you won't believe!
This whole thing is part of Russian campaign to discredit West and especially the US. Currently there is no situation where the US will end up as a winner, so this plays perfectly according to Russia's political ambitions. Take a look.
Trump announces that he is withdrawing from Syria. No one actually wants that, especially Russia. Russia wants Syria to be in chaos as every day this rotting wound is open it causes issues to West and benefits to Russia - refugees crowding Europe, West losing it's authority while Russia shows that they control policy in Middle East instead of the US, fertile ground for terrorists to grow to be headache especially in Europe, great platform to test newest Russian weapons and sell them (Russia just announced that they have achieved new record with weapons exports). So Russia greenlights Assad's chemical attack, knowing that West has to respond. However, West is scattered, due to Trump's rhetoric and Brexit and UN security council is nonfunctional so it is difficult to agree on joint action. Russia has carefully also built up relations with Turkey, the most important NATO ally in region who will oppose US in Syria. Now different scenarios can happen:
1) Trump decides to bomb some airfields again, Russia intercepts missiles and demonstrates capability of their air defence. They will make billions in sales to future dictators. US will not start bombing Russian ships of course. US will be humiliated as bombed buildings are rebuilt. Russia will claim unlawful attack on their ally and retaliate somewhere, most likely Ukraine, as they have in recent weeks massed up to 77 000 men on Ukrainian border. Russia and Iran will keep Assad in power, war ends one day and Russia and Iran will rule supreme in Middle East. US pockets defeat.
2) Trump decides to bomb airfields, Russia fails to intercept missiles. Russia claims unlawful attack on their ally and they retaliate in Ukraine or somewhere. As missile attacks will change nothing, slowly Russia and Iran will keep Assad in power, war ends one day and Russia and Iran will rule supreme in Middle East. US is humiliated for failing to stop massacre and provide adequate response to chemical attack. Russia and Iran will keep Assad in power, war ends one day and Russia and Iran will rule supreme in Middle East. US pockets defeat.
3) Trump decides to invade and gets stuck in another Middle East war. Don't worry, not a single Russian soldier will die, only 'mercenaries', over which Russia has 'no control'. War will get bogged down, people die, no one wants aanother war so as soon as possible, troops are pulled out again. Wound keeps festering until Russia and Iran install Assad again in power and then rule supreme in Middle East while the US pockets yet another defeat.
4) Trump, after much bluster, goes the way of Obama and does nothing, losing face and what shreds are left of the US reputation in Middle East. Russia and Iran will rule supreme in Middle East. US pockets defeat.
The whole issue is designed to humiliate the US, which simply does not have any good options what to do. The goal behind it is to reduce US power in the world in accordance with Russian geopolitical goals. To achieve that they need to shatter NATO, drive wedge between Western allies, reduce US cultural and economic influence. Having installed Trump in the White House they've seen success in every objective as alliances are weakening, Trump is pursuing trade war with China, getting humiliated in the Middle East and so on. This chemical attack by Assad is just another piece of puzzle designed to reduce American influence to rubble and force US inward, while Russia could divide and rule in places where US previously called the shots.
There you go, you're welcome.